Long Beach St.

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	191.0
Current RPI:	191
Expected SOS:	140
Current SOS:	140
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	9-8
Expected Conf Record:	9-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-3
Current OOC Record:	4-10
Expected OOC Record:	4-10
Expected OOC RPI:	175
Expected OOC SOS:	52

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	191.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	71-83	W	100%
11-18	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	89-81	L	0%
11-20	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	A	91-62	L	0%
11-23	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	N	58-95	L	0%
11-24	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	N	69-74	W	100%
11-26	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	N	85-80	L	0%
11-29	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	91-56	L	0%
12-2	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	70-106	L	0%
12-3	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	76-68	W	100%
12-6	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	94-89	L	0%
12-9	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	71-78	W	100%
12-16	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	80-85	L	0%
12-21	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	102-60	L	0%
12-23	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	68-66	L	0%
1-4	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	89-81	W	100%
1-6	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	86-73	L	0%
1-10	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	80-70	W	100%
1-13	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	68-75	W	100%
1-17	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	84-75	L	0%
1-20	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	81-73	W	100%
1-25	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	71-87	W	100%
1-27	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	66-70	W	100%
1-31	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	68-75	L	0%
2-3	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	104-105	L	0%
2-10	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	73-54	W	100%
2-15	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	70-80	L	0%
2-22	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	74-63	L	0%
2-24	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	81-71	L	0%
3-1	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	69-70	W	100%
3-3	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	77-59	W	100%
3-8	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	N	76-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Long Beach St.	BW	26.42	26.42	44.83	44.83	-2.73	-2.73
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	5.71	5.71	61.54	61.54	1.32	1.32
UC Irvine	BW	4.26	4.26	45.16	45.16	-0.41	-0.41
UC Davis	BW	4.22	4.22	64.29	64.29	1.20	1.20
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.21	4.21	71.43	71.43	1.80	1.80
Cal Poly	BW	4.18	4.18	25.93	25.93	-2.01	-2.01
UC Riverside	BW	4.13	4.13	25.93	25.93	-1.99	-1.99
Hawaii	BW	4.09	4.09	53.85	53.85	0.31	0.31
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.07	4.07	15.38	15.38	-2.82	-2.82
Oregon St.	P12	3.32	3.32	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	1.86	1.86	16.67	16.67	-1.24	-1.24
San Francisco	WCC	1.80	1.80	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Stanford	P12	1.79	1.79	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Fresno St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	62.07	62.07	0.43	0.43
Arizona	P12	1.76	1.76	78.79	78.79	1.01	1.01
Southern Utah	BSky	1.71	1.71	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Colorado St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	30.00	30.00	-0.67	-0.67
Michigan St.	B10	1.66	1.66	87.50	87.50	1.25	1.25
West Virginia	B12	1.64	1.64	69.70	69.70	0.65	0.65
Nebraska	B10	1.64	1.64	67.74	67.74	0.58	0.58
Missouri	SEC	1.64	1.64	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.61	1.61	57.14	57.14	0.23	0.23
California	P12	0.42	0.42	25.81	25.81	-0.20	-0.20
USC	P12	0.38	0.38	67.65	67.65	0.14	0.14
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.35	0.35	33.33	33.33	-0.12	-0.12
Utah Valley	WAC	0.33	0.33	65.52	65.52	0.10	0.10
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.33	0.33	16.67	16.67	-0.22	-0.22
Pacific	WCC	0.32	0.32	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.29	0.29	77.42	77.42	0.16	0.16
Nevada	MWC	0.29	0.29	79.41	79.41	0.17	0.17
Washington	P12	0.28	0.28	62.50	62.50	0.07	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.27	0.27	64.52	64.52	0.08	0.08
UCLA	P12	0.27	0.27	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.26	0.26	84.85	84.85	0.18	0.18
Washington St.	P12	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.23	0.23	64.71	64.71	0.07	0.07
Utah	P12	0.21	0.21	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Idaho	BSky	0.19	0.19	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
Denver	Sum	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02